Will there be cold-related mortality in Spain over the 2021–2050 and 2051–2100 time horizons despite the increase in temperatures as a consequence of climate change?

Abstract

Global warming is resulting in an increase in temperatures which is set to become more marked by the end of the century and depends on the accelerating pace of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Yet even in this scenario, so-called “cold waves” will continue to be generated and have an impact on health. Objectives: This study sought to analyse the impact of cold waves on daily mortality at a provincial level in Spain over the 2021–2050 and 2051–2100 time horizons under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, on the basis of two hypotheses: (1) that the cold-wave definition temperature (T threshold) would not vary over time; and, (2) that there would be a variation in T threshold.