Verification of a short-range ensemble precipitation prediction system over Iberia

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is the verification of a short-range ensemble prediction system (SREPS) built with five different model physical process parameterization schemes and two different initial conditions from global models, allowing to construct several versions of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale MM5 model for a 1-month period of October 2006. From the SREPS, flow-dependent probabilistic forecasts are provided by means of predictive probability distributions over the Iberian Peninsula down to 10-km grid spacing. In order to carry out the verification, 25 km grid of observational precipitation records over Spain from the Spanish Climatic Network has been used to evaluate the ensemble accuracy together with the mean model performance and forecast variability by means of comparisons between such records and the ensemble forecasts.