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CSTools: a new R package for the calibration, combination, downscaling and analysis of seasonal forecasts

2026-07-11T00:33:14Z

Título : CSTools: a new R package for the calibration, combination, downscaling and analysis of seasonal forecasts Autor : Caron, Louis-Philippe; Pérez Zanón, Núria; Álvarez-Castro, Carmen; Batté, Lauriane; Corti, Susanna; Domínguez Alonso, Marta; Fabiano, Federico; Gualdi, Silvio; Hardenberg, Jost von; Lledó, Llorenç; Manubens, Nicolau; Marson, Paola; Materia, Stefano; Sánchez García, Eroteida; Schaeybroeck, Bert Van; Torralba, Verónica; Terzago, Silvia; Verfaillie, Deborah; Volpi, Danila Descripción : Póster presentado en: EGU General Assembly 2019 celebrada del 7 al 12 de abril en Viena, Austria.

The record large 2006 Antarctic ozone hole

2026-07-11T23:18:54Z

Título : The record large 2006 Antarctic ozone hole Autor : Braathen, Geir; Van der A, R.; Vik, A. Fahre; Klekociuk, Andrew; Gelman, M.; Long, Craig; Oltmans, Samuel J.; Johnson, Bryan; Evans, Robert; Goutail, Florence; Marchand, Marion; Manney, Gloria L.; McPeters, Richard; Newman, Paul A.; Nash, E.; Shudo, Y.; Shanklin, Jonathan; Nichol, Sylvia; Ocampo, M.; Ginzburg, M.; Ciattaglia, Luigi; Hertzog, Albert; Bernhard, Germar; McKenzie, Richard Lloyd; Yela González, Margarita; Gathen, Peter von der; Redondas, Alberto; Zhang, Xiaoye Resumen : The Antarctic ozone hole of 2006 was unusually large. Several parameters used to measure the extent of ozone destruction and ozone hole severity set new records in 2006. Several ground-based stations measured record low total ozone column amounts. Ozonesonde measurements also revealed in many cases record low values of ozone in certain height intervals. The dynamics of the 2006 ozone hole will be described together with satellite-based measurements and calculations of ozone hole area and mass deficit. These finding will be supplemented with several examples of data from various stations in Antarctica. Descripción : Póster presentado en: EGU General Assembly 2007 celebrada del 15 al 20 de abril en Viena, Austria.

Trend of near-surface maximum wind speed in China: under a shifted East Asian monsoon scenario

2026-07-11T00:33:44Z

Título : Trend of near-surface maximum wind speed in China: under a shifted East Asian monsoon scenario Autor : Zhang, Gangfeng; Shi, Peijun; Chen, Deliang; Azorín Molina, César; Guijarro Pastor, José Antonio Resumen : The current global climate research has traditionally focused on changes in air temperature and precipitation. As a key climate parameter, changes of winds have a very significant impact on the environment, such as soil wind erosion, air pollution diffusion, wind power energy, etc. In particular, changes of extreme wind speed (i.e., wind gusts) are poorly analyzed and deserve further investigation. In this study we assess trends in máximum wind speed (MWS) across China for 1975-2016, using observed daily wind datasets, and also analyze its relationship with the East Asian monsoon. The raw observed MWS dataset was subject to aquality control and robust homogenization protocol using the Climatol package. The results reveal a statistically significant (p<0.05) reduction of MWS of -0.024 ms -1 dec-1 at anual scale across China, with declines in Winter (-0.320 ms -1dec-1; p<0.05) and autumn (-0.090 ms -1dec-1; p<0.05), an opposite increases in summer (+0.272; p<0.05) and spring (+0.034; p>0.10). Even though MWS declines dominated across much of the country through out the year, only as mal number of stations showed statistically significant negative trends in summer (37.7 %) and spring (29.0 %). Our preliminary analyses show that the weakened East Asian monsoon, particularly in winter, positively correlates with the observed changes in MWS. However, statistical significant correlations are too few and further attribution analyses are strongly needed. Descripción : Póster presentado en: EGU General Assembly 2018 celebrada del 8 al 13 de abril en Viena, Austria.

Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-Retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

2026-07-11T23:17:29Z

Título : Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-Retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise Autor : Klos, Anna; Van Malderen, Roeland; Pottiaux, Eric; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz; Chimani, Barbara; Elias, Michal; Gruszczynska, Marta; Guijarro Pastor, José Antonio; Zengin Kazancı, Selma; Ning, Tong Resumen : A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of “Data homogenisation” of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less complicated and fully complicated. The synthetic dataset we present was used as a benchmark to test various statistical tools in terms of homogenisation task. In this research, we assess the impact of the noise model, trend and gaps on the performance of statistical methods to detect simulated change points. Descripción : Póster presentado en: EGU General Assembly celebrada del 23 al 28 de abril de 2017 en Viena, Austria.