Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1383
Downscaling ECMWF seasonal precipitation forecasts in Europe using the RCA model
Title: Downscaling ECMWF seasonal precipitation forecasts in Europe using the RCA model
Authors: Díez Muyo, EliaOrfila, Bartolomé ORCID RESEARCHERID Frías, María DoloresFernández, JesúsCofiño, Antonio S.Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
Keywords: Precipitation prediction; Regional climate models; Seasonal forecast; Downscaling
Issue Date: 2011
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Citation: Tellus A. 2011, 63(4), p. 757-762
Publisher version: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00523.x
Abstract: The operational performance and usefulness of regional climate models at seasonal time scales are assessed by downscaling an ensemble of global seasonal forecasts. The Rossby Centre RCA regional model was applied to downscale a five-member ensemble from the ECMWF System3 global model in the European Atlantic domain for the period 1981–2001. One month lead time global and regional precipitation predictions were compared over Europe—and particularly over Spain—focusing the study in SON (autumn) dry events. A robust tercile-based probabilistic validation approach was applied to compare the forecasts from global and regional models, obtaining significant skill in both cases, but over a wider area for the later. Finally, we also analyse the performance of a mixed ensemble combining both forecasts.
Sponsorship : This work was partly supported by projects ENSEMBLES from the 6th FP EU (GOCE-CT-2003-505539), EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) and CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02) from the Spanish Ministry MICINN (Plan Nacional de I+D+i) and by ESCENA (200800050084265) from the Spanish Ministry MARM.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1383
ISSN: 0280-6495
1600-0870
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2010-2014


Files in This Item:
  File Description SizeFormat 
15857-46148-1-SM.pdf
302,02 kBAdobe PDFThumbnail
View/Open
Show full item record



Items in Arcimís are protected by Creative Commons License, unless otherwise indicated.