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A comparison of perturbed initial conditions and multiphysics ensembles in a severe weather episode in Spain
Title: A comparison of perturbed initial conditions and multiphysics ensembles in a severe weather episode in Spain
Authors: Tapiador, Francisco J.Tao, Wei-KuoShi, Jainn JongAngelis, Carlos F.Martínez Rubio, Miguel Ángel ORCID Autor AEMETMarcos Martín, Cecilia ORCID RESEARCHERID Autor AEMETRodríguez Martínez, AntonioHou, Arthur
Keywords: Precipitation; Heavy precipitation; Numerical model; Radar data
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Citation: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 2014, 51, p. 489–504
Publisher version:
Abstract: Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.
Sponsorship : Funding from projects PPII10- 0162-5543 (JCCM), CGL2010-20787-C02-01, CGL2010- 20787-C02-02 (MiCInn), Cenit project Prometeo (CDTI), and UNCM08-1E-086 (MiCInn) is gratefully acknowledged.
ISSN: 1558-8424
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2010-2014

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