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A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index
Title: A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index
Authors: Picornell, María Ángeles ORCID RESEARCHERID Autor AEMETJansà Clar, AgustíAutor AEMETGenovés, AnaAutor AEMET
Keywords: Predicción de ciclones; Región mediterránea; Mediterranean cyclone forecast; Numerical index
Issue Date: 2011
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
Citation: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2011, 11(6), p. 1787-1794
Publisher version:
Abstract: Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena. In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed.
Sponsorship : This work has been partially supported by the MEDICANES/CGL200801271 project.
ISSN: 1561-8633
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2010-2014

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