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A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index
Título : A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index
Autor : Picornell, María Ángeles ORCID RESEARCHERID Jansà Clar, AgustíGenovés, Ana
Palabras clave : Predicción de ciclones; Región mediterránea; Mediterranean cyclone forecast; Numerical index
Fecha de publicación : 2011
Editor: European Geosciences Union
Citación : Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2011, 11(6), p. 1787-1794
Versión del editor: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1787-2011
Resumen : Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena. In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed.
Patrocinador: This work has been partially supported by the MEDICANES/CGL200801271 project.
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1307
ISSN : 1561-8633
Colecciones: Artículos científicos 2010-2014

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