Spatial layout of forecasted extreme temperatures in the city of Murcia (Spain)

Abstract

The extremely warm summer of 2003 across Europe encouraged the development of a Spanish “Heat Wave Warning System”. The health authorities issued extreme temperature warnings to the population using extreme temperatures that were forecasted for the provincial capitals. The forecast of extreme temperatures is created by means of the post-processing of ECMWF EPS. For the Murcia region, the heat wave warnings are generated using extreme temperatures from the Murcia observatory, which is located in the suburbs of the city of Murcia. However, under this warning system, some uncertainties were raised regarding the difference between temperaturas in the city and in rural areas. Therefore we designed a thermometric network to cover both areas. We analysed the differential behaviour of extreme temperatures between urban and rural areas, as a function of the sky view factor (SVF). We carried out an exercise for forecasting extreme temperatures in each part of the city of Murcia, based on the SVF and meteorological parameters. The final objective is to design an automated process that incorporates forecasted meteorological variables and SVF values, in order to generate thermometric maps, which will show the spatial layout of forecasted extreme temperatures in the city of Murcia.