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Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
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dc.contributor.authorCallado Pallares, Alfonses_ES
dc.contributor.authorSantos Burguete, Carloses_ES
dc.contributor.authorEscribá, Paues_ES
dc.contributor.authorSantos Muñoz, Danieles_ES
dc.contributor.authorSimarro Grande, Juan Pabloes_ES
dc.contributor.authorGarcía-Moya Zapata, José Antonioes_ES
dc.identifier.citationAdvances in Geosciences. 2011, 26,p. 133-138es_ES
dc.description.abstractSpanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) runs a daily experimental multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System (AEMET-SREPS). The role of the system horizontal resolution (0.25 degrees) on the performance of 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts, and its relation with mesoscale events, are assessed comparing the performance over the Mediterranean area and over an European Atlantic area. Gridded high resolution rain observations and standard verification measures have been used at different precipitation thresholds, while studying the dependency on seasons for a one year period (May 2007 to June 2008). As a general result, performance over the Mediterranean area is higher than over the Atlantic one, albeit some relative loss of skill is found in autumn, when mesoscale convective organization is assumed to play a more important role. So it is suggested that AEMET-SREPS system precipitation predictability over the Mediterranean in autumn could be expected to improve if the horizontal and vertical resolution is increased in order to take into account the effect of meso-beta scale, especially important for convective organization.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipAEMET-SREPS project is partly supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science under research project CGL2008-01271 (MEDICANES).-
dc.publisherEuropean Geosciences Uniones_ES
dc.rightsLicencia CC: Reconocimiento CC BYes_ES
dc.subjectShort-Range Ensemble Prediction Systemes_ES
dc.subjectPrecipitation probabilistic forecastses_ES
dc.titlePerformance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean areaes_ES
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2010-2014

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