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On the Precursor Environments to Mountain Lee Wave Clouds in Central Iberia under CMIP6 Projections
Título : On the Precursor Environments to Mountain Lee Wave Clouds in Central Iberia under CMIP6 Projections
Autor : Díaz Fernández, JavierCalvo Sancho, CarlosBolgiani, PedroGonzález-Alemán, Juan Jesús ORCID RESEARCHERID SCOPUSID Autor AEMETFarrán Martín, José IgnacioSastre, MarianoMartín, María Luisa
Palabras clave : Mountain lee waves; CMIP6; Global Climate Models; SSP5–8.5
Fecha de publicación : 2024
Editor: MDPI
Citación : Atmosphere. 2024, 15(1), 128
Versión del editor: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010128
Resumen : Mountain lee waves present significant hazards to aviation, often inducing turbulence and aircraft icing. The current study focuses on understanding the potential impact of global climate change on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud episodes over central Iberia. We examine the suitability of several Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in predicting these environments using the ERA5 reanalysis as a benchmark for performance. The dataset is divided into two periods: historical data (2001–2014) and projections for the SSP5–8.5 future climate scenario (2015–2100). The variations and trends in precursor environments between historical data and future climate scenarios are exposed, with a particular focus on the expansion of the Azores High towards the Iberian Peninsula, resulting in increased zonal winds throughout the Iberian Peninsula in the future. However, the increase in zonal wind is insufficient to modify the wind pattern, so future mountain lee wave cloud events will not vary significantly. The relative humidity trends reveal no significant changes. Moreover, the risk of icing precursor environments connected with mountain lee wave clouds is expected to decrease in the future, due to rising temperatures. Our results highlight that the EC-EARTH3 GCM reveals the closest alignment with ERA5 data, and statistically significant differences between the historical and future climate scenario periods are presented, making ECEARTH3 a robust candidate for conducting future studies on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud events.
Patrocinador: The work is funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación of Spain, through the PID2019-105306RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 project.
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/15479
ISSN : 2073-4433
Colecciones: Artículos científicos 2023-2026


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