Future Wind Conditions in the German Bight Under RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario (2006–2099) From Regional Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model System MPIOM-REMO

Abstract

The German Bight, located in the southeastern part of the North Sea, undergoes notable variations in wind direction and intensity over time. In this work, the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere system and dynamically downscaled model MPIOM-REMO under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario (2006–2099) have been used to analyse future wind conditions for Helgoland Island and Dogger Bank areas in the German Bight. The results suggest an increase in wind speed with respect to the historical period (1950–2005) during the winter months, especially in westerly directions, both in the historical period and in the projected future, reaching annual winter averages of 10 m/s. Future and present wind rose comparisons at the study sites reveal distinct patterns: at Helgoland, northerly and southerly winds occur less frequently and with lower magnitudes compared to Dogger Bank. Conversely, easterly and southeasterly winds are more prevalent at Helgoland. In the historical period, wind speed tends to increase in spring, but in the projected future, it decreases by 1 m/s. The summer wind conditions stay largely the same at both sites compared to the historical period. Wind events (hours that present sustained wind in one specific direction) are one of the main studied features, discarding those that are too short or not very intense. The frequency of westerly events, which predominate especially in the winter months, is increasing significantly, with about 10 more events per year by 2099, while the frequency of easterly events, more frequent in spring, is expected to decrease for both considered sites.