Cambios futuros para V10 y la densidad de energía eólica marina utilizando proyecciones del CMIP6 en el oceáno Atlántico norte

Abstract

This study analyzes future changes in 10 m wind speed (V10) in the North Atlantic Ocean region and how these variations can influence in the offshore Wind Power Density (WPD) for the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula. The study focuses on two periods of the 21st century: for the mid- (MC, 2049-2053) and end-century (EC, 2096-2100). A dynamic downscaling methodology is used based on the regional climate model WRF-ARW forced with three future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) of the global climate model CESM2, belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that in the future V10 will decrease in the winter and spring seasons, but increase in summer and autumn, in tropical regions up to 30 oN. Annually, a maximum increase of V10 is expected in the most tropical region. Significant summer and autumn increases are projected for WPD throughout the 21st century in both future periods analyzed.