Proyección del régimen pluviométrico futuro en el noreste de la península ibérica bajo escenarios de cambio climático

Abstract

The future rainfall series projected for the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula for the last two-thirds of the twenty- first century under various climate change scenarios have been examined to assess potential changes in the region's pluviometric regimes due to global warming. The future rainfall variations have been analyzed using the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), a set of indicators designed to characterize moderate meteorological and climatic extremes and facilitate comparisons between locations. These indicators have been utilized in this study to evaluate changes in future climate projections. The analysis suggests that, despite the uncertainty in detecting possible variations in total future rainfall, an increase in the intensity and concentration of rainfall is anticipated, possibly attributable to a rise in the proportion of episodes of very intense and short-duration precipitation within the total rainfall.