Impacto del cambio climático en el recurso solar: revisión de proyecciones, incertidumbres y perspectivas

Abstract

The rise in global deployment of photovoltaic (PV) technology demands accurate solar resource assessments for industry and stakeholders. While traditionally assessed through satellite and in-situ observations, climate models have become crucial for projecting solar resource changes in the near or mid-future. Numerous studies, using global or regional climate models, analyze climate projections for solar resources globally. Some studies use a single regional climate model for specific areas, while others adopt a multi-model approach, incorporating simulations from projects like CMIP for global models or CORDEX for regional ones. Disparities between global and regional model projections have been identified, with corresponding analyses published. This study aims to comprehensively review solar resource projections globally across six regions, summarizing projected changes and examining agreement or discrepancy between global and regional models.