Variabilidad y teleconexiones de la precipitación ibérica: predictibilidad estacional y cambios decadales

Abstract

This work examines the variability of precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula and its relation with global teleconnections, particularly the one related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using high-resolution gridded data, the period of the year when the ENSO-precipitation teleconnection is most intense is identified. This teleconnection is found to be non-stationary, subject to decadal changes, that may potentially open up windows of opportunity to seasonal forecasting. The study also evaluates the precipitation forecasting skill of ECMWF's SEAS5 prediction system and its ability to represent the main modes of variability and teleconnections.