SST como posible forzamiento de la variabilidad de clorofila-a en el mar de Alborán: ¿una fuente de predictabilidad estacional?

Abstract

This study investigates the link between climate modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in spring along the northern flank of the Alboran Sea. To this aim, surface satellite-derived products of SST and Chl-a, together with atmospheric satellite variables, are used. Our results indicate that both the tropical North Atlantic and ENSO affect the distribution of Chl-a through the alteration of the usual upwelling taking place in northern Alboran in spring. Furthermore, the related SST signals might be used as predictors of this Chl-a response. In particular, during the El Niño/La Niña years, the Chl-a signal can be robustly predicted with 4 months in advance. On the other hand, the tropical North Atlantic SSTs allow to significantly predict, up to 7 months in advance, the Chl-a concentration in spring offshore. The results presented here could contribute to develop a future seasonal forecasting tool of upwelling variability and living marine resources in northern Alboran.