Incertidumbres en la predicción del huracán Leslie: caso de estudio con el modelo MPAS

Abstract

Hurricane Leslie made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula in 2018. Leslie was a system with several tropical and extratropical transitions, as well as a system with high uncertainty in the forecasts. Leslie's interaction with a trough showed that difficulties still exist in cyclone forecasting, particularly in complicated synoptic settings. Using high-resolution simulations with MPAS model find notable differences in Leslie's path depending on different initial conditions. This work emphasizes the critical role that initial conditions play in forecasting and highlights the better performance of the ECMWF data assimilations system.