Servicio climático de ayuda a la gestión de embalses en AEMET

Abstract

A climate service for reservoir management is presented. The service provides enhanced forecasts of precipitation and reservoir inflow during extended winter (November-March). It takes advantage of the robust relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and Precipitation (NAO) over Iberian Peninsula in winter weight ensemble members from ECMWF SEAS5. For that purpose, September and October runs from ECMWF SEAS5 NAO forecasts are combined together with empirical NAO forecasts to produce an improved prediction of winter NAO (“NAOBest”). Ensemble is coupled to two different hydrological models, and precipitation and reservoir inflow forecasts are evaluated on a pilot basin. Results are presented trough a visor jointly developed with the stakeholder.