Predicción decenal de alta resolución para la precipitación en la península ibérica

Abstract

The main aim of the decadal climate prediction is to fill the gap between the seasonal-to-interannual prediction and the long-term climate change projection. While the former is very sensitive to initial conditions, the latter is fundamentally considered as a boundary condition problem. In this line, the decadal climate prediction is a double-type problem in which both initial and boundary conditions play an important role in the extraction of the climate signal. The objective of this work is to evaluate the predictive skill of a set of dynamically downscaled decadal climate predictions for precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula. These predictions have been conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), taking the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble as the source for initial and boundary information. The best results in predictive skill have been obtained for the first lead year at annual scale, while the largest added value with respect to the global predictions has been found in summer.