Verificación de previsiones estacionales multisistema de modos de variabilidad climática europea

Abstract

The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, and some other modes of variability, can be skilfully forecast by different seasonal forecast systems, as shown in recent studies. Due to the influence of these modes of variability on temperature and precipitation in Europe, accurate forecasts of their phase can lead to significant improvements in seasonal forecasting. Here we show a verification of the predictability of these modes of variability, using different prediction systems, different lead times, and different methodologies. According to our results, The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian Pattern show higher predictability, as opposed to the East Atlantic / Western Russia, which is the worst predicted pattern.