Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1869
Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER)
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dc.contributor.authorPalmer, Times_ES
dc.contributor.authorAlessandri, A.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorAndersen, U.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorCantelaube, P.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorDavey, M.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorDélécluse, P.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorDéqué, Micheles_ES
dc.contributor.authorDíez Muyo, Eliaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorDoblas-Reyes, Francisco Javieres_ES
dc.contributor.authorFeddersen, Henrikes_ES
dc.contributor.authorGraham, R.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorGualdi, Silvioes_ES
dc.contributor.authorGuérémy, J. -F.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorHagedorn, R.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorHoshen, M.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorLatif , M.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorLazar, A.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorMaisonnave, E.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorMarletto, V.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorMorse, A. P.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorOrfila, Bartolomées_ES
dc.contributor.authorRogel, P.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorTerres, J. -M.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorThomson, Madeleine C.es_ES
dc.date.accessioned2016-04-12T14:15:23Z-
dc.date.available2016-04-12T14:15:23Z-
dc.date.issued2004-
dc.identifier.citationBulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2004, 85(6), p. 853–872es_ES
dc.identifier.issn0003-0007-
dc.identifier.issn1520-0477-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1869-
dc.description.abstractA multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThe DEMETER project has been funded by the European Union under the Contract EVK2-1999-00024.-
dc.formatapplication/pdf-
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorology Societyes_ES
dc.subjectDEMETERes_ES
dc.subjectSeasonal forecastes_ES
dc.subjectEnsemble Prediction Systemes_ES
dc.subjectAtmosphere–ocean coupled modelses_ES
dc.subjectPrecipitation forecastses_ES
dc.titleDevelopment of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER)es_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853es_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_ES
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2000-2004


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