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Calibration and combination of seasonal forecasts over Southern Europe [Póster]
Title: Calibration and combination of seasonal forecasts over Southern Europe [Póster]
Authors: Sánchez García, Eroteida ORCID RESEARCHERID Autor AEMETVoces Aboy, JoséAutor AEMETRodríguez Camino, Ernesto ORCID Autor AEMET
Keywords: Predicción; Estacional; Combinación; Verificación; Forecast; Seasonal; Calibration; Verification
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: Agencia Estatal de Meteorología
Citation: European Geosciences Union General Assembly (2016)
Abstract: Verification of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from different operational systems over selected regions in Southern Europe is computed based on the available re-forecasts. A comprehensive set of scores and procedures targeted at verification of probabilistic forecasts provides an overview of the skill of current operational models for different seasons, lead times, variables and sub-regions in Southern Europe. The impact of calibration and combination of seasonal re-forecasts based on different setups of a Bayesian scheme has also been studied. The potential of such scheme and their different setups to improve seasonal forecast quality is also discussed.
Description: Póster elaborado para la European Geosciences Union General Assembly celebrada los días 17-22 de abril de 2016 en Viena
Appears in Collections:EGU General Assembly

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