Predicción de eventos extremos de polen alergénico en la Comunidad de Madrid. Inicio de la estación polínica del plátano de sombra

Abstract

Allergenic pollens originated health problems in a rising segment of population on developed countries. Adequate forecast of extreme health related events such peaks or start of pollination season could allow to take preventive measurement that reduce hospitalization cases and an improvement in life conditions for patients that are allergic to pollens. In central part of Spain, main species that originate such pollens are grasses, plane tree, olive tree and Cupressaceae. In Madrid autonomous region, PALINOCAM Network operates 11 pollen catchments stations and issues pollen forecasts daily. AEMET supports this structure providing observed and forecast meteorological data and also new prediction tools. In this paper, a description of plane tree start of pollination season forecast procedure is shown. Main basis is the fact that it is needed to reach a value threshold on previous heat accumulation that allow to plane tree buttons to grow and start spreading its pollen. Threshold adjustment procedure for accumulate heat and daily pollen accounts is described. Up to seven days of forecasted extreme temperatures are added to observed temperature series to give forecasted accumulated heat. An evaluation of an operational scheme for the start of pollination season in March 2008 for Madrid-City has been done.