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Calibration and combination of seasonal forecast over Southern Europe
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dc.contributor.authorSánchez García, Eroteidaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorVoces Aboy, Josées_ES
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez Camino, Ernestoes_ES
dc.identifier.otherNIPO 281-14-014-X-
dc.description.abstractVerification of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from four different operational systems - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system 4, Météo-France system 3, UK Met Office system 3 and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) system version 2 - for different seasons, lead times, variables and sub-regions over Southern Europe is computed based on available hindcasts. The impact of calibration and combination of seasonal hindcasts using different setups of a Bayesian scheme has also been discussed. Although results show relatively low skill as a consequence of the low predictability at seasonal scale over mid-latitudes, there is a noticeable consistency among models. As expected over Southern Europe, scores for temperature are better than for precipitation. We also show and discuss windows of opportunity associated to certain seasons/variables/models/regions.es_ES
dc.publisherAgencia Estatal de Meteorologíaes_ES
dc.rightsLicencia CC: Reconocimiento–NoComercial–SinObraDerivada CC BY-NC-ND
dc.subjectPredicción estacionales_ES
dc.subjectPredicción numéricaes_ES
dc.titleCalibration and combination of seasonal forecast over Southern Europees_ES
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