Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7276
We meteorologists cannot escape probabilities!
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dc.contributor.authorPersson, Anderses_ES
dc.date.accessioned2017-07-05T06:50:59Z-
dc.date.available2017-07-05T06:50:59Z-
dc.date.issued2014-
dc.identifier.citationTiempo y clima. Abril 2014, 5(44), p. 38-43es_ES
dc.identifier.issn1696-764X-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7276-
dc.description.abstractThe introduction of the ENS in 1992 was seen as a paradigm shift in operational weather forecasting by introducing probability forecasts. But probability forecasting had been around for almost 100 years, so perhaps the real paradigm shift was rather the introduction around 1980 of the ECMWF high-resolution deterministic 10-day forecast system (HRES) which gave the illusion about exact, confident and detailed weather forecasts. The weather forecasting problem remains, however, a probabilistic matter, whether we “like” it or not. The question is to find ways to handle this problem waiting for the realization of “Laplace Demon” in a very distant future. In the meantime we have to acknowledge uncertainty. It is argue in this article that forecast uncertainty information is a win-win product: it increases the value of the forecast and it gives the forecasters opportunities to display their skill, experience and knowledge, which make people trust the forecasts. Because, as Alan Murphy used to emphasize, even if a forecasts is very accurate with no uncertainties, if it is not trusted, it will serve no purpose.es_ES
dc.language.isospaes_ES
dc.publisherAsociación Meteorológica Españolaes_ES
dc.rightsLicencia CC: Reconocimiento CC BYes_ES
dc.subjectEnsemble predictiones_ES
dc.subjectProbability forecastinges_ES
dc.subjectForecast uncertaintieses_ES
dc.subjectStatistical methodses_ES
dc.titleWe meteorologists cannot escape probabilities!es_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://pkp.ame-web.org/index.php/TyC/issue/view/24/showToces_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_ES
Appears in Collections:Revista AME 2010-2015


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