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A study on the forecast quality of the mediterranean cyclones
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dc.contributor.authorPicornell, María Ángeleses_ES
dc.contributor.authorCarrassi, N. A.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorJansà Clar, Agustíes_ES
dc.identifier.citation4th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2002)es_ES
dc.descriptionComunicación presentada en: 4th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms celebrada del 2 al 4 de octubre de 2002 en Palma de Mallorca.es_ES
dc.description.abstractThe main general objective of MEDEX is stated to be the improvement of knowledge and forecasting of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean area. So, for this scope one of the intermediate goals of the project concerns the development of an objective method to evaluate the quality of the forecast of the cyclones. The topic of the present study is to investigate the cyclone's forecast errors in that area and to propose an objective methodology to quantify them. An investigation on the performance of the HIRLAM(INM)-0.5 model in the forecast of cyclonic centres has been done. Databases of analysed and forecasted cyclones for the Western Mediterranean have been used in this study. The "distance" between the analysed and forecasted cyclone has been measured calculating the differences in the value of the parameters chosen to describe them at the sea level surface. Results on the characteristics of the errors are shown. An index constructed by means of these differences has been introduced to evaluate the ability of the model forecasting cyclones, and to quantify it. From this index, two others indexes have been derived in order to discriminate if the forecast has overestimated or underestimated some magnitudes in the description of the cyclone. Three different time forecast ranges, H+12,H+24 and H+48, have been considered to investigate temporal trend in their quality. Finally, to check this methodology, it has been applied to some MEDEX cases.es_ES
dc.rightsLicencia CC: Reconocimiento–NoComercial–SinObraDerivada CC BY-NC-NDes_ES
dc.subjectForecast qualityes_ES
dc.subjectHigh impact weatheres_ES
dc.subjectNumerical modeles_ES
dc.titleA study on the forecast quality of the mediterranean cycloneses_ES
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