Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7622
Preliminary evaluation of a short-range ensemble prediction system over western Mediterranean
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dc.contributor.authorSantos Muñoz, Danieles_ES
dc.contributor.authorMartín Pérez, María Luisaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorMorata Gasca, Anaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorValero Rodríguez, Franciscoes_ES
dc.date.accessioned2017-09-29T07:22:02Z-
dc.date.available2017-09-29T07:22:02Z-
dc.date.issued2008-
dc.identifier.citation9th WRF Users’ Workshop (2008)es_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7622-
dc.descriptionComunicación presentada en: 9th WRF Users’ Workshop celebrado del 23 al 27 de junio de 2008 en Colorado.es_ES
dc.description.abstractA generation of a short-range ensemble prediction system, based on a set of mesoscale models with different subgrid-scale physic schemes and two different initial conditions, is developed, providing flow-dependent probabilistic forecasts by means of predictive probability distributions over the Western Mediterranean. A ten members short-range ensemble forecast system has been constructed over western Mediterranean area as a result of combining two different initial conditions from global models and five different physics configurations of the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (MM5, version 3). The simulations obtained from this ensemble have been investigated during October 2006 period. An overview of the mean model performance and forecast variability, together with an evaluation of the ensemble accuracy, by means of comparison between the ensemble system and observations is provided. Calculations of the ensemble probability distribution functions for precipitation are displayed, providing explicit information on ensemble forecast uncertainty and constituting one of the major advantages of the ensemble methods over deterministic forecasting. The quality and value of precipitation forecasts have been evaluated against Spanish Climatic Network. The verification scores exhibit hopeful results encouraging the extension of this preliminary research to other verification periods and studying cases.es_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.subjectEnsemble predictiones_ES
dc.subjectMesoscale modelses_ES
dc.subjectProbabilistic forecastses_ES
dc.subjectPrecipitationes_ES
dc.titlePreliminary evaluation of a short-range ensemble prediction system over western Mediterraneanes_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjectes_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_ES
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