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SDS-WAS: Ensemble Prediction of Airborne Dust
Title: SDS-WAS: Ensemble Prediction of Airborne Dust
Authors: García-Castrillo, GerardoCallado Pallarés, AlfonsAutor AEMETTerradellas, EnricAutor AEMETEscribá, PauAutor AEMET
Keywords: Ensemble Prediction System; Dust optical depth; PM10; HIRLAM; HARP
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: 5th International Workshop on Sand and Dust Storms (2017)
Abstract: In this study, a one-month period has been selected to perform a deeper verification of the ensemble prediction system in order to evaluate its consistency and reliability. First, the ordinary deterministic verification of the different 12 models or members, as well as their median, has been carried out. Then, verification has been undertaken from a probabilistic point of view. This is a first step for the correct calibration of the system and the implementation of probabilistic forecast products as DSC and DOD EPSgrams. The study has been performed using the HARMONIE monitor deterministic and the HARP (Hirlam Aladin R-based package) probabilistic verification packages.
Description: Comunicación presentada en: International Workshop on Sand and Dust Storms "Dust Sources and their Impacts in the Middle East", celebrado en Estambul del 23 al 25 de octubre de 2017
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