Forecasting of poor visibility episodes in the vicinity of Tenerife Norte Airport

Abstract

Aviation safety is a priority that may be compromised by adverse weather conditions. This is the case for poor visibility in the vicinity of airports, which can pose a risk during takeoff and landing. For airports that are prone to fog because of their location, an accurate forecast of poor-visibility episodes is vital. However, the forecasting of low clouds is still a challenge in numerical weather prediction, especially when an airport is near complex terrain for which the use of non-hydrostatic mesoscale models is mandatory. All these factors are present at Tenerife Norte Airport, which is commonly affected by poor visibility from low clouds related to persistent trade winds and moist flows from the Atlantic Ocean. In this paper, several methods for estimating visibility based on mesoscale model outputs are tested. Use of the HARMONIE-AROME model is encouraged because of its excellent performance in the detection of poor-visibility episodes (False Alarm Ratio = 0.34–0.38; Frequency Of Misses = 0.22–0.38, depending on the model version and method used). In addition, the use of satellite application facilities is proposed for the nowcasting of low clouds affecting the airport area. Specifically, we used products that estimate cloud type, cloud top altitude, and integrated water vapor content in the boundary layer. Finally, an application is presented for the monitoring of weather conditions in real time to estimate poor-visibility risk.