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High-spatial-resolution probability maps of drought duration and magnitude across Spain
Title: High-spatial-resolution probability maps of drought duration and magnitude across Spain
Authors: Domínguez Castro, FernandoVicente Serrano, Sergio MartínTomas Burguera, MiquelPeña Gallardo, MarinaBegueria, SantiagoEl-Kenawy, AhmedLuna Rico, Yolanda ORCID RESEARCHERID SCOPUSID Autor AEMETMorata Gasca, Ana ORCID SCOPUSID Autor AEMET
Keywords: Drought; Standardized Precipitation Index; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
Issue Date: 2019
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
Citation: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2019, 19(3), p. 611-628
Publisher version:
Abstract: Assessing the probability of occurrence of drought is important for improving current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures, and strategies across Spain. This study employed two well-established drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), to characterize drought duration and magnitude at different timescales over Spain. In order to map the drought hazard probability, we applied the extreme value theory and tested different thresholds to generate peak-over-threshold (POT) drought duration and magnitude series. Our results demonstrate that the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution performs well in estimating the frequencies of drought magnitude and duration. Specifically, we found a good agreement between the observed and modelled data when using upper percentiles to generate the POT series. Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought events in southern and central Spain compared to the northern and eastern regions. Also, our study found spatial differences in drought probability estimations as a function of the selected drought index (i.e. SPI vs. SPEI) and timescale (i.e. 1, 3, 6, and 12 months). Drought hazard probability maps can contribute to the better management of different sectors (e.g. agriculture, water resources management, urban water supply, and tourism) at national, regional, and even local scale in Spain.
Description: El conjunto de datos se encuentra disponible en la dirección:
Sponsorship : This work was supported by the research projects CGL2014-52135-C03-01 and PCIN-2015-220 financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER, 1560/2015: Herramientas de monitorización de la vegetación mediante modelización ecohidrológica en parques continentales financed by the Red de Parques Nacionales, IMDROFLOOD financed by the Water Works 2014 co-funded call of the European Commission and INDECIS, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by MINECO with co-funding by the European Union 30 (Grant 690462).
ISSN: 1561-8633
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2019-2022

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