Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/10976
Lightning probability forecast in Mainland Portugal
Title: Lightning probability forecast in Mainland Portugal
Authors: Rio, JoaoCorreia, SandraLopes, Manuel
Keywords: Lightning probability; ECMWF forecast; Stability indices; Logistic regression
Issue Date: 2019
Publisher: Agencia Estatal de Meteorología
Citation: Sexto Simposio Nacional de Predicción, Memorial Antonio Mestre. Madrid: Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, 2019, p. 199-200
Publisher version: https://dx.doi.org/10.31978/639-19-010-0.199
Abstract: The lightning probability forecast at IPMA is obtained using a logistic regression model. Four stability indices, computed from ECMWF forecasts are used as predictors. The probability forecasts are available up to 6 days, in 6 hour periods and are computed only for Mainland Portugal. Thunderstorms are among the weather events that may cause local severe damage and disruption to the power-grid network, telecommunications and air traffic, hence forecasting the areas where lightning may occur is of major importance.
Description: Ponencia presentada en: VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción, celebrado en los servicios centrales de AEMET, en Madrid, del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/10976
Appears in Collections:6º Simposio Nacional de Predicción (2018)


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