Web-based decision support toolbox for Spanish reservoirs

Abstract

Under the S-ClimWaRe (Seasonal Climate prediction in support of Water Reservoirs management) initiative, a climate service to support decision-making process by water managers in Spanish reservoirs has been developed. It consists in a web-based toolbox jointly designed with stakeholders. The website is organized in two main areas. The first one allows the user to explore, for any water reservoir or grid point over continental Spain, the existing hydrological variability and risk linked to climate variability. This is performed through a set of indicators obtained from time series of hydrological and meteorological observations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, identified as main climate driver in this geographical region. The second main area provides seasonal forecasts of NAO and both reservoir inflow and precipitation, complemented by information on probabilistic forecasts skill. Currently the NAO index is the only driver implemented for display, and forecasts come from a statistical forecasting system developed only for the extended winter NDJFM period. Through the MEDSCOPE (MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions) project new sources of predictability and relationships with different climate drivers will be explored. Forecast skill improvement is expected after the combination and weighting of ensemble members of the Copernicus seasonal forecasting systems. These forecasts will feed more sophisticated hydrological models. The toolbox has been flexible designed with respect to sources of seasonal forecasts and extension to additional drivers, variables and seasons. In this way, user requirements and scientific progress will be easily incorporated to new versions of this climate service.