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Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing
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dc.contributor.authorPeña-Angulo, D.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorVicente Serrano, Sergio Martínes_ES
dc.contributor.authorDomínguez Castro, Fernandoes_ES
dc.contributor.authorMurphy, C.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorReig, Ferguses_ES
dc.contributor.authorTramblay, Yveses_ES
dc.contributor.authorTrigo, R. M.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorLuna Rico, Yolandaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorTurco, Marcoes_ES
dc.contributor.authorNoguera, I.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorAznárez-Balta, M.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorGarcía-Herrera, Ricardoes_ES
dc.contributor.authorTomas Burguera, Miqueles_ES
dc.contributor.authorEl-Kenawy, Ahmedes_ES
dc.identifier.citationEnvironmental Research Letters. 2020, p. 1-23es_ES
dc.description.abstractWe present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850-2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the lack of statistically significant long-term decreasing trends in precipitation for the region. Rather, significant trends were mostly found for shorter periods, highlighting the prevalence of interdecadal and interannual variability at these time-scales. Global climate model outputs from three CMIP experiments are evaluated for periods concurrent with observations. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles show precipitation decline, with only CMIP6 showing agreement with long term trends in observations. However, for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 large interannual and internal variability among ensemble members makes it difficult to identify a trend that is statistically different from observations. Across both observations and models, our results make it difficult to associate any declining trends in precipitation in Southwestern Europe to anthropogenic forcing at this stage.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by the research projects CGL2017-82216-R, CGL2017-83866-C3-3-R and PCI2019-103631, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; CROSSDRO project financed by the AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X) - sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation), JPI-Climate co-funded call of the European Commission and INDECIS which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).es_ES
dc.publisherIOP Publishinges_ES
dc.rightsLicencia CC: Reconocimiento CC BYes_ES
dc.subjectGlobal climate modeles_ES
dc.subjectPrecipitation trendses_ES
dc.subjectVariability of climatees_ES
dc.titleLong-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcinges_ES
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2019-2021

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