Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/12911
On the potential of ensemble forecasting for the prediction of meteotsunamis in the Balearic Islands: sensitivity to atmospheric model parameterizations
Title: On the potential of ensemble forecasting for the prediction of meteotsunamis in the Balearic Islands: sensitivity to atmospheric model parameterizations
Authors: Mourre, BaptisteSantana, AlexBuils, A.Gautreau, L.Licer, M.Jansà Clar, AgustíAutor AEMETCasas, BenjamínAmengual, BernatAutor AEMETTintoré, Joaquin
Keywords: Meteotsunamis prediction; Atmosphere–ocean modeling; Ensemble forecasting; Atmospheric model parameterizations
Issue Date: 2021
Publisher: Springer
Citation: Natural Hazards. 2021, 106, p. 1315-1336
Publisher version: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03908-x
Abstract: This study investigates the potential of ensemble forecasting using full realistic high-reso-lution nested atmosphere–ocean models for the prediction of meteotsunamis in Ciutadella (Menorca, Spain). The sensitivity of model results to the parameterizations of the atmos-pheric model is assessed considering the ten most significant recent meteotsunami events for which observations are available. Different schemes adapted to high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used for the representation of cumulus, microphysics, planetary boundary layer and longwave and shortwave radiations. Results indicate a large spread of the ensemble simulations in terms of the final magnitude of the meteotsunamis. While the modeling system is shown to be able to realistically trigger tsu-namigenic atmospheric disturbances in more than 90% of the situations, the small-scale characteristics of these disturbances are significantly modified with the change of param-eterizations, leading to significant differences in the magnitude of the simulated sea-level response. No preferred set of parameterizations can be identified that leads to either the largest or the most realistic magnitudes in the majority of situations. Instead, the perfor-mance of a given set of parameterizations is found to change with the meteotsunami event under consideration. Importantly, the observed magnitude of the extreme sea-level oscilla-tions lies within the range of a nine-member ensemble in 70% of the cases. This ensemble approach would then allow to generate a realistic range of possibilities in the majority of events, thus improving the realism of meteotsunami predictions compared to single deter-ministic forecasts.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/12911
ISSN: 0921-030X
1573-0840
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2019-2021


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