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Future trends of snowfall days in northern Spain from ENSEMBLES regional climate projections
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dc.contributor.authorPons Reynés, María Rosaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorHerrera García, Sixtoes_ES
dc.contributor.authorGutiérrez Llorente, José Manueles_ES
dc.identifier.citationClimate Dynamics. 2015es_ES
dc.description.abstractIn the present work we analyze the skill of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to reproduce this trend for the period 1961–2000 (using both reanalysis- and historical GCMdriven boundary conditions) and the trend and the associated uncertainty of the regional future projections obtained under the A1B scenario for the first half of the twenty-first century. In particular, we consider the regional simulation dataset from the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project, consisting of thirteen state-of-the-art RCMs run at 25 km resolution over Europe. While ERA40 severely underestimates both the mean NSD and its observed trend (−2.2 days/ decade), the corresponding RCM simulations driven by the reanalysis appropriately capture the interannual variability and trends of the observed NSD (trends ranging from −3.4 to −0.7, −2.1 days/decade for the ensemble mean). The results driven by the GCM historical runs are quite variable, with trends ranging from −8.5 to 0.2 days/decade (−1.5 days/decade for the ensemble mean), and the greatest uncertainty by far being associated with the particular GCM used. Finally, the trends for the future 2011–2050 A1B runs are more consistent and significant, ranging in this case from −3.7 to −0.5 days/decade (−2.0 days/decade for the ensemble mean), indicating a future significant decreasing trend. These trends are mainly determined by the increasing temperatures, as indicated by the interannual correlation between temperature and NSD (−0.63 in the observations), which is preserved in both ERA40- and GCM-driven simulations.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreements 606799 (INTACT Project). The RCM simulations used in this study were obtained from the European Union-funded FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539).-
dc.rightsLicencia CC: Reconocimiento–NoComercial–SinObraDerivada CC BY-NC-NDes_ES
dc.subjectDynamical downscalinges_ES
dc.subjectRegional climate modelinges_ES
dc.subjectSnowfall occurrencees_ES
dc.subjectSnowfall trendses_ES
dc.subjectModelos climáticoses_ES
dc.subjectFrecuencia de las precipitacioneses_ES
dc.titleFuture trends of snowfall days in northern Spain from ENSEMBLES regional climate projectionses_ES
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2015-2018

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