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Downscaling ECMWF seasonal precipitation forecasts in Europe using the RCA model
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dc.contributor.authorDíez Muyo, Eliaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorOrfila, Bartolomées_ES
dc.contributor.authorFrías, María Doloreses_ES
dc.contributor.authorFernández, Jesúses_ES
dc.contributor.authorCofiño, Antonio S.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorGutiérrez Llorente, José Manueles_ES
dc.identifier.citationTellus A. 2011, 63(4), p. 757-762es_ES
dc.description.abstractThe operational performance and usefulness of regional climate models at seasonal time scales are assessed by downscaling an ensemble of global seasonal forecasts. The Rossby Centre RCA regional model was applied to downscale a five-member ensemble from the ECMWF System3 global model in the European Atlantic domain for the period 1981–2001. One month lead time global and regional precipitation predictions were compared over Europe—and particularly over Spain—focusing the study in SON (autumn) dry events. A robust tercile-based probabilistic validation approach was applied to compare the forecasts from global and regional models, obtaining significant skill in both cases, but over a wider area for the later. Finally, we also analyse the performance of a mixed ensemble combining both forecasts.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was partly supported by projects ENSEMBLES from the 6th FP EU (GOCE-CT-2003-505539), EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) and CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02) from the Spanish Ministry MICINN (Plan Nacional de I+D+i) and by ESCENA (200800050084265) from the Spanish Ministry MARM.-
dc.publisherTaylor & Francises_ES
dc.rightsLicencia CC: Reconocimiento CC BYes_ES
dc.subjectPrecipitation prediction-
dc.subjectRegional climate modelses_ES
dc.subjectSeasonal forecastes_ES
dc.titleDownscaling ECMWF seasonal precipitation forecasts in Europe using the RCA modeles_ES
Colecciones: Artículos científicos 2010-2014

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