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Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
Title: Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
Authors: Callado Pallarés, AlfonsAutor AEMETSantos Burguete, Carlos ORCID RESEARCHERID Autor AEMETEscribà, PauAutor AEMETSantos Muñoz, DanielAutor AEMETSimarro Grande, Juan Pablo ORCID SCOPUSID Autor AEMETGarcía-Moya Zapata, José Antonio
Keywords: Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System; Precipitation probabilistic forecasts; Mediterranean; Autumn
Issue Date: 2011
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
Citation: Advances in Geosciences. 2011, 26,p. 133-138
Publisher version:
Abstract: Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) runs a daily experimental multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System (AEMET-SREPS). The role of the system horizontal resolution (0.25 degrees) on the performance of 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts, and its relation with mesoscale events, are assessed comparing the performance over the Mediterranean area and over an European Atlantic area. Gridded high resolution rain observations and standard verification measures have been used at different precipitation thresholds, while studying the dependency on seasons for a one year period (May 2007 to June 2008). As a general result, performance over the Mediterranean area is higher than over the Atlantic one, albeit some relative loss of skill is found in autumn, when mesoscale convective organization is assumed to play a more important role. So it is suggested that AEMET-SREPS system precipitation predictability over the Mediterranean in autumn could be expected to improve if the horizontal and vertical resolution is increased in order to take into account the effect of meso-beta scale, especially important for convective organization.
Sponsorship : AEMET-SREPS project is partly supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science under research project CGL2008-01271 (MEDICANES).
ISSN: 1680-7340
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2010-2014

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