Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1511
Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
Título : Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
Autor : Callado Pallares, AlfonsSantos Burguete, Carlos ORCID RESEARCHERID Escribá, PauSantos Muñoz, DanielSimarro Grande, Juan PabloGarcía-Moya Zapata, José Antonio
Palabras clave : Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System; Precipitation probabilistic forecasts; Mediterranean; Autumn
Fecha de publicación : 2011
Editor: European Geosciences Union
Citación : Advances in Geosciences. 2011, 26,p. 133-138
Versión del editor: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-133-2011
Resumen : Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) runs a daily experimental multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System (AEMET-SREPS). The role of the system horizontal resolution (0.25 degrees) on the performance of 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts, and its relation with mesoscale events, are assessed comparing the performance over the Mediterranean area and over an European Atlantic area. Gridded high resolution rain observations and standard verification measures have been used at different precipitation thresholds, while studying the dependency on seasons for a one year period (May 2007 to June 2008). As a general result, performance over the Mediterranean area is higher than over the Atlantic one, albeit some relative loss of skill is found in autumn, when mesoscale convective organization is assumed to play a more important role. So it is suggested that AEMET-SREPS system precipitation predictability over the Mediterranean in autumn could be expected to improve if the horizontal and vertical resolution is increased in order to take into account the effect of meso-beta scale, especially important for convective organization.
Patrocinador: AEMET-SREPS project is partly supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science under research project CGL2008-01271 (MEDICANES).
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1511
ISSN : 1680-7340
1680-7359
Colecciones: Artículos científicos 2010-2014


Ficheros en este ítem:
  Fichero Descripción Tamaño Formato  
adgeo-26-133-2011.pdf
1,29 MBAdobe PDFVista previa
Visualizar/Abrir
Mostrar el registro completo del ítem



Los ítems de Arcimís están protegidos por una Licencia Creative Commons, salvo que se indique lo contrario.

Repositorio Arcimís
Nota Legal Contacto y sugerencias