Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1512
Probabilistic prediction of raw and BMA calibrated AEMET-SREPS: the 24 of January 2009 extreme wind event in Catalunya
Título : Probabilistic prediction of raw and BMA calibrated AEMET-SREPS: the 24 of January 2009 extreme wind event in Catalunya
Autor : Escribá, Pau; Callado, Alfons; Santos Burguete, Carlos; Santos Muñoz, Daniel; García-Moya, José Antonio; Simarro, Juan Pablo
Palabras clave : Explosive cyclogenesis; Probabilistic prediction; Short Range Ensemble Prediction System
Fecha de publicación : 2010
Editor: European Geosciences Union
Citación : Advances in Geosciences. 2010, 26, p. 119-124
Versión del editor: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-119-2010
Resumen : At 00:00 UTC of 24 January 2009 (24Jan09) an explosive cyclogenesis placed at the Gulf of Vizcaya, reached its maximum intensity with observed surface pressures below 970 hPa on its center. During its path through the south of France there were strong westerly and north-westerly winds over Iberian Peninsula (above 150 km/h). These extreme winds leaved 8 casualties in Catalunya, the north-east region of Spain. The aim of this work is validating the skill of the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) in forecasting this event. Two probabilistic forecasts of wind are compared, a non-calibrated (or raw) and a calibrated one using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA).
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1512
ISSN : 1680-7340
1680-7359
Colecciones: Artículos científicos 2010-2014


Ficheros en este ítem:
  Fichero Descripción Tamaño Formato  
adgeo-26-119-2010.pdf
7,31 MBAdobe PDFVista previa
Visualizar/Abrir
Mostrar el registro completo del ítem



Los ítems de Arcimís están protegidos por una Licencia Creative Commons, salvo que se indique lo contrario.

Repositorio Arcimís
Nota Legal Contacto y sugerencias