Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1512
Probabilistic prediction of raw and BMA calibrated AEMET-SREPS: the 24 of January 2009 extreme wind event in Catalunya
Title: Probabilistic prediction of raw and BMA calibrated AEMET-SREPS: the 24 of January 2009 extreme wind event in Catalunya
Authors: Escribá, PauAutor AEMETCallado, AlfonsAutor AEMETSantos Burguete, Carlos ORCID RESEARCHERID Autor AEMETSantos Muñoz, DanielGarcía-Moya, José AntonioAutor AEMETSimarro, Juan Pablo ORCID SCOPUSID Autor AEMET
Keywords: Explosive cyclogenesis; Probabilistic prediction; Short Range Ensemble Prediction System
Issue Date: 2010
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
Citation: Advances in Geosciences. 2010, 26, p. 119-124
Publisher version: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-119-2010
Abstract: At 00:00 UTC of 24 January 2009 (24Jan09) an explosive cyclogenesis placed at the Gulf of Vizcaya, reached its maximum intensity with observed surface pressures below 970 hPa on its center. During its path through the south of France there were strong westerly and north-westerly winds over Iberian Peninsula (above 150 km/h). These extreme winds leaved 8 casualties in Catalunya, the north-east region of Spain. The aim of this work is validating the skill of the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) in forecasting this event. Two probabilistic forecasts of wind are compared, a non-calibrated (or raw) and a calibrated one using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA).
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/1512
ISSN: 1680-7340
1680-7359
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2010-2014


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