Air pollution and meteorological variables’ effects on COVID-19 first and second waves in Spain

Abstract

The aim of this research is to study the infuence of atmospheric pollutants and meteorological variables on the incidence rate of COVID-19 and the rate of hospital admissions due to COVID-19 during the frst and second waves in nine Spanish provinces. Numerous studies analyze the efect of environmental and pollution variables separately, but few that include them in the same analysis together, and even fewer that compare their efects between the frst and second waves of the virus. This study was conducted in nine of 52 Spanish provinces, using generalized linear models with Poisson link between levels of PM10, NO2 and O3 (independent variables) and maximum temperature and absolute humidity and the rates of incidence and hospital admissions of COVID-19 (dependent variables), establishing a series of signifcant lags. Using the estimators obtained from the signifcant multivariate models, the relative risks associated with these variables were calculated for increases of 10 µg/m3 for pollutants, 1 °C for temperature and 1 g/m3 for humidity. The results suggest that NO2 has a greater association than the other air pollution variables and the meteorological variables. There was a greater association with O3 in the frst wave and with NO2 in the second. Pollutants showed a homogeneous distribution across the country. We conclude that, compared to other air pollutants and meteorological variables, NO2 is a protagonist that may modulate the incidence and severity of COVID-19, though preventive public health measures such as masking and hand washing are still very important.