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Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER)
Title: Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER)
Authors: Palmer, TimAlessandri, AndreaAndersen, U.Cantelaube, P.Davey, M.Délécluse, P.Déqué, MichelDíez Muyo, EliaAutor AEMETDoblas-Reyes, Francisco JavierFeddersen, HenrikGraham, RichardGualdi, SilvioGuérémy, J. -F.Hagedorn, RenateHoshen, M.Latif, MojibLazar, AlbanMaisonnave, E.Marletto, VittorioMorse, AndrewOrfila, Bartolomé ORCID RESEARCHERID Autor AEMETRogel, P.Terres, J. M.Thomson, Madeleine C.
Keywords: DEMETER; Seasonal forecast; Ensemble Prediction System; Atmosphere–ocean coupled models; Precipitation forecasts
Issue Date: 2004
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Citation: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2004, 85(6), p. 853–872
Publisher version:
Abstract: A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.
Sponsorship : The DEMETER project has been funded by the European Union under the Contract EVK2-1999-00024.
ISSN: 0003-0007
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos 2000-2004

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