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A postprocessing methodology for direct normal irradiance forecasting using cloud information and aerosol load forecasts
Título : A postprocessing methodology for direct normal irradiance forecasting using cloud information and aerosol load forecasts
Autor : Casado Rubio, José Luis ORCID RESEARCHERID Revuelta, María Aránzazu ORCID RESEARCHERID Postigo, MaríaMartínez Marco, IsabelYagüe, Carlos
Palabras clave : Irradiance; Forecast verification/skill; Renewable energy; Energía renovable; Irradiancia; Verificación de la predicción
Fecha de publicación : 2017
Editor: American Meteorological Society
Citación : Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 2017, 56(6), p. 1595-1608
Versión del editor: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0297.1
Resumen : A method for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasting for specific sites is proposed. It is based on the combination of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, which provides cloud information, with radiative transfer simulations fed with external aerosol forecasts. The NWP model used is the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System, and the radiative transfer information has been obtained from the Library of Radiative Transfer (libRadtran). Two types of aerosol forecasts have been tested: the global Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) model, which predicts five major components of aerosols, and the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (BSC-DREAM8b) added to a fixed background calculated as the 20th percentile of the monthly mean of AERONET 2.0 observations from a different year. The methodology employed is valid for all meteorological situations, providing a stable and continuous DNI curve. The performance of the combined method has been evaluated against DNI observations and compared with the pure ECMWF forecasts at eight locations in the southern half of mainland Spain and the Canary Islands, which received high loadings of African dust for 2013 and 2014. Results for 1-day forecasts are presented. Although clouds play a major role, aerosols have a significant effect, but at shorter time scales. The combination of ECMWF and MACC forecasts gives the best global results, improving the DNI forecasts in events with high aerosol content. The regional BSC-DREAM8b yields good results for some extremely high dust conditions, although more reliable predictions, valid for any aerosol conditions, are provided by the MACC model.
Patrocinador: The authors acknowledge the libRadtran developers for their radiative transfer tools used in this work and ECMWF for their forecasts. We thank the MACC project, funded by the European Commission under the EU-Horizon 2020 Programme and coordinated by the ECMWF, for their AOD data, freely available on its website (http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/).
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7116
ISSN : 1558-8432
Colecciones: Artículos científicos 2015-2018

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