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Calibration and combination of seasonal forecast over Southern Europe
Title: Calibration and combination of seasonal forecast over Southern Europe
Authors: Sánchez García, Eroteida ORCID RESEARCHERID Autor AEMETVoces Aboy, JoséAutor AEMETRodríguez Camino, Ernesto ORCID Autor AEMET
Keywords: Predicción estacional; Predicción numérica
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: Agencia Estatal de Meteorología
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Abstract: Verification of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from four different operational systems - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system 4, Météo-France system 3, UK Met Office system 3 and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) system version 2 - for different seasons, lead times, variables and sub-regions over Southern Europe is computed based on available hindcasts. The impact of calibration and combination of seasonal hindcasts using different setups of a Bayesian scheme has also been discussed. Although results show relatively low skill as a consequence of the low predictability at seasonal scale over mid-latitudes, there is a noticeable consistency among models. As expected over Southern Europe, scores for temperature are better than for precipitation. We also show and discuss windows of opportunity associated to certain seasons/variables/models/regions.
Appears in Collections:AEMET - Publicaciones en línea

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