Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7368
Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance
Título : Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance
Autor : Pozo Vázquez, DavidRemund, JanMüller, Stefan C.Traunmüller, WolfgangSteinmaurer, GeraldPozo Vázquez, D.Ruiz Arias, Jose AntonioLara Fanego, VicenteRamírez, LourdesGastón, MartínKurz, ChristianMartin Pomares, LuisGeijo, Carlos
Palabras clave : Forecasting; Solar radiation; Grid-connected; PV System
Fecha de publicación : 2009
Citación : 24th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (2009)
Resumen : Power generation from photovoltaic systems is highly variable due to its dependence on meteorological conditions. An efficient use of this fluctuating energy source requires reliable forecast information for management and operation strategies. Due to the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields becomes more and more important. As a consequence, in the last years various research organisations and companies have developed different methods to forecast irradiance as a basis for respective power forecasts. For the end-users of these forecasts it is important that standardized methodology is used when presenting results on the accuracy of a prediction model in order to get a clear idea on the advantages of a specific approach. In this paper we introduce a benchmarking procedure to asses the accuracy of irradiance forecasts and compare different approaches of forecasting. The evaluation shows a strong dependence of the forecast accuracy on the climatic conditions. For Central European stations the relative rmse ranges from 40 % to 60 %, for Spanish stations relative rmse values are in the range of 20 % to 35 %.
Descripción : Ponencia presentada en: 24th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition celebrada del 21-25 de septiembre de 2009 en Hamburgo.
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11765/7368
Colecciones: Otras actas-congresos

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