Estimating the global temperature change by means of a fuzzy logic model obtained from a simple climate model

Abstract

[EN]In this work a simple box model of the ocean-atmosphere system is used to asses the response of the simulated global mean temperature to expected changes in the surface thermal forcing at the year 2000, as well as to variations of two key parameters, namely ocean thermal diffusivity and the atmospheric feedback. Such experiments provide the input data needed to build fuzzy logic models that are able to deal with the uncertainties associated to the model parameters. Two fuzzy logic approaches are presented in this article.

[ES]En este trabajo se utiliza un modelo de cajas del sistema océano-atmósfera para estudiar la respuesta de la temperatura promedio global a cambios en el forzamiento radiativo y a la variación de dos parámetros importantes del modelo: la difusividad térmica del océano y la sensitividad de la atmósfera (procesos de retroalimentación). A partir de los campos de temperatura obtenidos, se construyen dos modelos basados en lógica difusa.